Ordering Likelihoods
Compare the likelihood of different events and order them from least to most likely — including situations with unequal outcomes such as a bag with more of one colour than another, or a spinner with sections of different sizes — and explain reasoning using informal language
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“If a bag has 8 red counters and 2 blue ones, does your child understand that picking red is much more likely than picking blue — and can they put different events in order from least to most likely?”
Full guide and materials
- Activity. Compare the likelihood of different events and order them from least to most likely — including situations with unequal outcomes such as a bag with more of one colour than another, or a spinner with sections of different sizes — and explain reasoning using informal language
What to notice. Order four or more events from least likely to most likely and justify each placement • Compare likelihoods when outcomes are not equally likely — e.g. 'Drawing red from a bag with 7 red and 3 blue is more likely than drawing blue' • Explain why some events are closer to 'even chance' and others are closer to 'certain' or 'impossible'
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If a bag has 8 red counters and 2 blue ones, does your child understand that picking red is much more likely than picking blue — and can they put different events in order from least to most likely?
Compare the likelihood of different events and order them from least to most likely — including situations with unequal outcomes such as a bag with more of one colour than another, or a spinner with sections of different sizes — and explain reasoning using informal language
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Check understanding
- Order four or more events from least likely to most likely and justify each placement
- Compare likelihoods when outcomes are not equally likely — e.g. 'Drawing red from a bag with 7 red and 3 blue is more likely than drawing blue'
- Explain why some events are closer to 'even chance' and others are closer to 'certain' or 'impossible'
“If a bag has 8 red counters and 2 blue ones, does your child understand that picking red is much more likely than picking blue — and can they put different events in order from least to most likely?”
Curriculum record
- Type
- Conceptual
- Subject
- Mathematics
- Domain
- Probability
- Age range
- Ages 9–10