Experimental vs Theoretical
Run repeated probability experiments and compare experimental (relative frequency) results with theoretical predictions; understand and demonstrate that as the number of trials increases, the experimental probability tends towards the theoretical probability — and that short runs can give very different results
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“If your child flips a coin 10 times and gets 7 heads, do they understand why this doesn't mean heads is "more likely" — and that the more times you flip, the closer the results get to 50:50?”
Full guide and materials
- Activity. Run repeated probability experiments and compare experimental (relative frequency) results with theoretical predictions; understand and demonstrate that as the number of trials increases, the experimental probability tends towards the theoretical probability — and that short runs can give very different results
What to notice. Roll a die 60 times and compare experimental frequencies with the expected 10 per number • Explain why experimental results don't exactly match theoretical predictions but get closer with more trials • Predict what would happen if the experiment were repeated 600 times instead of 60
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If your child flips a coin 10 times and gets 7 heads, do they understand why this doesn't mean heads is "more likely" — and that the more times you flip, the closer the results get to 50:50?
Run repeated probability experiments and compare experimental (relative frequency) results with theoretical predictions; understand and demonstrate that as the number of trials increases, the experimental probability tends towards the theoretical probability — and that short runs can give very different results
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Check understanding
- Roll a die 60 times and compare experimental frequencies with the expected 10 per number
- Explain why experimental results don't exactly match theoretical predictions but get closer with more trials
- Predict what would happen if the experiment were repeated 600 times instead of 60
“If your child flips a coin 10 times and gets 7 heads, do they understand why this doesn't mean heads is "more likely" — and that the more times you flip, the closer the results get to 50:50?”
Curriculum record
- Type
- Procedural
- Subject
- Mathematics
- Domain
- Probability
- Age range
- Ages 10–11