Equally Likely Outcomes

MathematicsProbabilityAges 9–10

Understand that 'equally likely' means every outcome has exactly the same chance of occurring; identify whether a given situation has equally likely outcomes (a fair coin, a fair die, a spinner with equal sections) or unequally likely outcomes (a bag with more of one colour, a spinner with unequal sections)

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Teaching Table

Set out your lesson

Explain equal chances in stated fair models and distinguish unequal outcome areas or counts.

Activity

Distinguish outcomes from individual objects; understand equal-sized sectors describe equal area, not just number of colour names.

Policy

Directed source edges are preserved, not assumed completed. If the readiness probe is difficult, model with support and record supported practice instead of independent evidence.

Materials

Use the supplied stage-specific structured materials. Plain paper and pencil; screen viewing is optional.

Order

Show, guided, put teaching sheet aside, then task sheets in order; adult keys remain private.

Access

No printing or cutting is required unless explicitly choosing a physical construction. Exact paper alternatives are in each material; adaptations change the evidence mode as stated.

Materials are ready in each step. Use them on screen or print just the current step. Put teaching examples aside before the learner tries.

What this lesson covers and its limits

These are bounded opportunities, not learner attainment. Partial and blocked source requirements remain so.

partial: Understand that 'equally likely' means every outcome has exactly the same chance of occurring; identify whether a given situation has equally likely outcomes (a fair coin, a fair die, a spinner with equal sections) or unequally likely outcomes (a bag with more of one colour, a spinner with unequal sections)
Mathematical chance models, not claims about an actual device's mechanical fairness. No trial outcomes fabricated or gambling introduced. This is a bounded task opportunity, not established attainment or automatic use across contexts.
partial: Explain that a fair coin has equally likely outcomes because heads and tails each have the same chance
Mapped task(s) offer this clause only within the supplied examples. Mathematical chance models, not claims about an actual device's mechanical fairness. No trial outcomes fabricated or gambling introduced. No attainment or automatic/general performance is claimed.
partial: Identify whether a spinner with unequal sections has equally likely outcomes or not, and explain why
Mapped task(s) offer this clause only within the supplied examples. Mathematical chance models, not claims about an actual device's mechanical fairness. No trial outcomes fabricated or gambling introduced. No attainment or automatic/general performance is claimed.
partial: Give an example of a situation with equally likely outcomes and one without, explaining the difference
Mapped task(s) offer this clause only within the supplied examples. Mathematical chance models, not claims about an actual device's mechanical fairness. No trial outcomes fabricated or gambling introduced. No attainment or automatic/general performance is claimed.
partial: Can {{name}} tell the difference between a fair situation — like rolling a normal die where every number has the same chance — and an unfair one, like a bag with many more of one colour than another?
Mathematical chance models, not claims about an actual device's mechanical fairness. No trial outcomes fabricated or gambling introduced. This is a bounded task opportunity, not established attainment or automatic use across contexts.

Mathematical chance models, not claims about an actual device's mechanical fairness. No trial outcomes fabricated or gambling introduced.

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Explain equal chances in stated fair models and distinguish unequal outcome areas or counts.

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Check understanding

Explain that a fair coin has equally likely outcomes because heads and tails each have the same chance
Identify whether a spinner with unequal sections has equally likely outcomes or not, and explain why
Give an example of a situation with equally likely outcomes and one without, explaining the difference

“Can your child tell the difference between a fair situation — like rolling a normal die where every number has the same chance — and an unfair one, like a bag with many more of one colour than another?”

Curriculum record

Type: Conceptual
Subject: Mathematics
Domain: Probability
Age range: Ages 9–10